Long-Term Forecast

The simulation scenarios were designed by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) in the context of the European scenario COVID-19 Hub.  A more detailed description of EpiGraph model is here. The objective is to evaluate different vaccination strategies in Spain and the varied levels of protection provided by the vaccines. The forecasts start on the July 23th 2022 and includes the following four different scenarios depicted in the COVID-19 Hub (scenarios A, B, C and D) plus three additional ones (Baseline, E and F):

Baseline scenario: In this scenario we assume that there is not an additional vaccination campaign in Spain after the summer. Consequently, the existing immunity is provided by the current vaccination state and natural immunity.

Scenario A: Increased booster vaccine effectiveness to that seen against Delta variant. 2nd* booster recommended for 60+. Coverage among the target population reaches 50% of coverage achieved by the first booster campaign among that population Uptake starts 15th September, and reaches 50% coverage by 15th December.

Scenario B: Increased booster vaccine effectiveness to that seen against Delta variant. 2nd* booster recommended for 18+. Coverage among the target population reaches 50% of coverage achieved by the first booster campaign among that population Uptake starts 15th September, and reaches 50% coverage by 15th December.

Scenario C: Reduced booster vaccine effectiveness against infection from BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75 variants. 2nd* booster recommended for 60+. Coverage among the target population reaches 50% of coverage achieved by the first booster campaign among that population Uptake starts 15th September, and reaches 50% coverage by 15th December.

Scenario D: Reduced booster vaccine effectiveness against infection from BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75 variants. Coverage among the target population reaches 50% of coverage achieved by the first booster campaign among that population Uptake starts 15th September, and reaches 50% coverage by 15th December.

Scenario E: Increased booster vaccine effectiveness to that seen against Delta variant. 2nd* booster recommended for 18+. Coverage among the target population reaches 100% of coverage achieved by the first booster campaign among that population Uptake starts 15th September, and reaches 50% coverage by 15th December.

Scenario F: Reduced booster vaccine effectiveness against infection from BA.4/BA.5/BA.2.75 variants. Coverage among the target population reaches 100% of coverage achieved by the first booster campaign among that population Uptake starts 15th September, and reaches 50% coverage by 15th December.

Forecast of active cases in Spain by EpiGraph

Forecast of active cases in Comunidad de Madrid by EpiGraph